Dear Designer,

Predict with uncertainty and take action. It’s better to know that you’re wrong than to be completely ignorant.

Probabilistic Modeling is…

A system used to transcend unavoidable uncertainty. Uncertainty is well known, it flows in and out of Erikson’s Stages of Psychosocial Development, Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs, and Piaget’s Stages of Cognitive Development. It has been and will always be everpresent in real-world operations. If our world is not absolute, neither are our ideas, concepts, and theories that help guide our actions, and neither are we. What can we do? We can learn. We can adapt our ideas, concepts, and theories to the world as it changes.


“The processes by which [anything] maintains homeostasis [and may evolve] in the face of both short-term environmental fluctuations and long-term changes in the composition and structure of their environments.” (Rappaport’s (1971) definition, developed from Romer’s Rule to explain the evolution of vertebrates. The Environment in Anthropology, edited by Nora Haenn, Richard R. Wil).

Good advice, but I believe most of this is common sense when it comes to efficiency and getting results. Except #4, which makes very little sense: “don’t read the whole book.” I’d much rather teach someone to invest in reading faster and paraphrasing key points better. Reading is much more than extracting information, especially when researching – there are no shortcuts here, only agility. I wish there was a bit more to this post.